An Introduction

Hi. Welcome to BourGroup and my blog. Phil

Phil Bour is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER(tm) professional since 2004, a Magna Cum Laude college graduate and an accounting professional for over 35+ years. I love numbers, statistics and economic history.

I am also an Enrolled Agent (EA) to represent taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service and to prepare tax returns.

"Phil"osophy: I believe that you can manage your money on your own (not necessarily through individual stock selection but through mutual funds, ETF's and other solutions) once you receive some one-time, professional guidance. Why pay annual fees when there may be little added value? For additional information, first read the "An Introduction" label at the left. Then move on to others.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Purchasing Manager's Index


Here is an interesting chart from the October 2nd Institute of Supply Management with history from 1969 to present.
If the PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) falls below 50, does that mean the stock market can be expected to go down? Or that a recession is looming on the horizon?
Some would like you to think so, but as a leading economic indicator over the past 40 years only big drops in the index seem to tell us anything.
The most recent drop from 54 to 52 (still above 50) does not seem to be conclusive to me as that has happened many times before and then rebounded. When it hits 40 or below, then recessions seem to appear.
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