An Introduction

Hi. Welcome to BourGroup and my blog. Phil

Phil Bour is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER(tm) professional since 2004, a Magna Cum Laude college graduate and an accounting professional for over 35+ years. I love numbers, statistics and economic history.

I am also an Enrolled Agent (EA) to represent taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service and to prepare tax returns.

"Phil"osophy: I believe that you can manage your money on your own (not necessarily through individual stock selection but through mutual funds, ETF's and other solutions) once you receive some one-time, professional guidance. Why pay annual fees when there may be little added value? For additional information, first read the "An Introduction" label at the left. Then move on to others.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Capacity Utilization and Inflation

Things that could - possibly - dampen current "inflation scares":



"...An acceleration in productivity relative to recent trends in real wage growth [little increase in wages with the high unemployment we are experiencing in late 2009] can have an important damping effect on inflation..."



The Wall Street Journal reported on September 21, 2009 the following statistics which corroborate Dr. Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve that inflation is not the concern today:


56% - hotel occupancy rate (the lowest since 1987)


14% - percentage of airplanes in storage because of, in part, weak demand


33% - percentage of rail cars in storage


66% - capacity utilization (a favorite % of mine which was 82% in 2003 and averages 75%)

18 - million vacant homes

15 - million unemployed

With this much "slack" in the economy, inflation is, it seems, going to have a difficult time rearing its ugly head. However, that said, we will once again - some day - be in a 2-3% inflationary environment and that may be the worst of all. Why? Because it is imperceptible.

Small rates of inflation degrade your purchasing power (reducing it in half) every 20 years or so. That is a powerful loss in your investments and why financial planning is important and, why, in retirement, distribution planning is essential.

A concern for spending too much in retirement also needs to be weighed against the other extreme of reducing your lifestyle beyond what is desired out of fear that you will not have enough. One of my 9 steps is knowing when "enough is enough". Have a financial plan.