An Introduction

Hi. Welcome to BourGroup and my blog. Phil

Phil Bour is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER(tm) professional since 2004, a Magna Cum Laude college graduate and an accounting professional for over 35+ years. I love numbers, statistics and economic history.

I am also an Enrolled Agent (EA) to represent taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service and to prepare tax returns.

"Phil"osophy: I believe that you can manage your money on your own (not necessarily through individual stock selection but through mutual funds, ETF's and other solutions) once you receive some one-time, professional guidance. Why pay annual fees when there may be little added value? For additional information, first read the "An Introduction" label at the left. Then move on to others.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Will Stock Market Returns Return?

In a November 2008 Financial Advisor magazine article by Ken Ziesenheim, he stated that "...the current consensus is that we may remain in a low-return envrionment for a significant time to come..."



He could not have been more wrong, so far (although 20 years from now we may look back and find that the average annual return will be lower than the 1990-2009 period). In 1999, we were bombarded with "...this is a New Economy...and this market will continue to see new highs..."



It is interesting to me (and research backs it up) that we have a recency bias which makes our brains interpolate the future based on recent past events. When all is good, we expect it to continue and when we have watched this economic earthquake we think it will continue.


The short-term = unknown. The long-term market performance can only be guessed at based on past long-term performance that included depressions, recession, euphoria, unemployment, wars, earthquakes, terrorist attacks, no regulation and some regulation of financial sectors and on and on it goes.