An Introduction

Hi. Welcome to BourGroup and my blog. Phil

Phil Bour is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER(tm) professional since 2004, a Magna Cum Laude college graduate and an accounting professional for over 35+ years. I love numbers, statistics and economic history.

I am also an Enrolled Agent (EA) to represent taxpayers before the Internal Revenue Service and to prepare tax returns.

"Phil"osophy: I believe that you can manage your money on your own (not necessarily through individual stock selection but through mutual funds, ETF's and other solutions) once you receive some one-time, professional guidance. Why pay annual fees when there may be little added value? For additional information, first read the "An Introduction" label at the left. Then move on to others.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Expected Return is What Counts

When prices go down buy and hold. Why? Because of future returns...

Here are two concepts about "expected return" quoted from economists Fama and French at their website: www.dfaus.com :

"...in the short run the number of shares outstanding is fixed. As a result, changes in risk cannot affect the aggregate portfolio of all investors; you cannot reduce your equity position unless someone else is willing to increase his. Changes in risk can, however, affect price. When risk goes up I expect prices to fall and expected returns to rise..."

AND


"...the onset of high volatility should be associated with price declines that increase expected returns going forward (to compensate investors for the higher volatility), and the onset of a low volatility period should be associated with price increases that lower expected returns going forward. As a result, if you bounce in and out of the market in response to variation in volatility, you are likely to be in when expected returns are low and out when expected returns are high..."